Economic Trends
Economic development in Bend will continue to occur in the context of long-term national, state and regional trends. A number of those trends, and their implications for Bend’s economy, are highlighted below.
■ Moderate growth rates and recovery from the national recession. The “Great Recession” is widely considered to have ended in 2009; however, economies take time to recover and Bend’s economy is no exception. After 2009, Bend experienced a period of minimal growth, followed by a period of dramatic growth. Bend can expect continued economic growth (measured by employment growth, unemployment rates and wage growth) over the coming years.
■ Growth of service-oriented industries. As the goods-producing industries decline, service-oriented industries are on the rise. This trend will continue to impact the composition of Bend’s economy, leading to an even higher percentage of jobs in health care, government, retail trade, personal services and food services. Historically, Bend’s economy was heavily dependent on manufacturing and resource extraction industries such as sawmills and pumice mines. Similar to state and national trends, Bend’s economy has undergone fundamental changes over several decades as employment in traditional manufacturing sectors declined and growth in service-oriented sectors increased.
■ Availability of trained and skilled labor. In Bend, population and in-migration growth rates are generally high and residents are more likely to have a Bachelor’s degree (relative to state and national rates). This results in a pool of available labor in Bend, a trend that is forecast to continue over the coming years.
Vision for Economic Development in Bend What does a healthy Bend economy look like? |
■ Bend attracts and retains targeted industries. The City targets employment sectors that are projected to grow, that are a good fit for the City, and that help Bend achieve its economic goals – including an emphasis on jobs that pay higher than median wages. Targeted sectors include higher education, health care, recreation equipment, and specialty manufacturing. ■ Bend’s downtown is strong. The downtown continues to be an active focal point for residents and visitors with strong businesses, urban housing, civic services, arts and cultural opportunities, and gathering places. Parking downtown is adequate and strategically located. ■ Bend maintains an adequate supply of serviceable industrial and commercial lands. There is enough suitable land within Bend’s UGB to accommodate future jobs and businesses. The City monitors and maintains the land supply. ■ Bend builds a diversified economy. Bend continues to move toward a more diversified economy that provides professional service, high-skill manufacturing, high-tech, and other higher than median wage jobs. ■ Bend provides opportunities for university education and research. A high-quality university in Bend provides education and training for the next generation of Central Oregonian workers whose ideas, talents and energy will create the foundation of Bend’s future economy. |
■ Aging population. While Bend’s population is younger than the state’s as a whole, it is still aging and the percentage of people over age 60 is expected to increase. Businesses in Bend will need to replace workers as they retire, at a rate that will likely outpace job growth.
■ Importance of natural resource amenities. Bend is widely acclaimed as one of the top “smaller” cities in the country. The City has a distinctive and appealing vibe, a growing national profile, a fun and relaxed way of life, and a beautiful natural setting for outdoor living and recreation. As a fast-growing City, Bend’s attractiveness brings a central challenge: how to accommodate more people and jobs while preserving what the community values so Bend gets better, not just bigger.
Additional information about how Bend forecasts employment growth, identifies target industries, and evaluates its ability to accommodate future employment can be found in the 2016 Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA). The EOA is adopted and incorporated as Appendix K of the comprehensive plan and it provides the factual base to support the goals and policies for the economy in this chapter. It includes estimates of the amount of employment that can be accommodated on existing land in the UGB and the amount of residual employment that will require new land.
The need for employment growth correlates strongly to the need for land within Bend’s urban growth boundary. The Urbanization Report provides a discussion about how employment land needs are determined and how Bend will meet those needs over time.