Demographic Trends
There are a number of factors that will increasingly affect the choices people make when it comes to housing type; three primary factors are a person’s age, the number of people in the household and household income. In Bend, and across the country, the first two decades of the 21st century saw some key demographic changes that will impact the way communities plan for the housing needs of their existing and future populations.
■ Growth in Baby Boomers. The number of people over age 65 is projected to increase significantly. Households over 65 tend to have less income than younger households and are more likely to choose lower-cost multi-unit dwellings. Some baby boomers may also choose to downsize their housing, resulting in greater demand for small dwellings.
■ Growth in Millennials. Millennials are people who will be between 31 and 44 years old in the year 2028. This segment of the population is also expected to increase in Bend. Younger millennials typically have lower incomes and may have higher debt. Growth in millennials will increase need for affordable housing rental and ownership options.
■ Growth in Hispanic and Latino population. The Hispanic and Latino population in Bend more than doubled between 2000 and 2014, and growth is expected to continue. Many Hispanic and Latino residents in Bend are also within the Millennial age range. To the extent that Hispanic and Latino households currently have lower household incomes than the population as a whole, demand for more affordable housing, both rental and ownership options, will increase.
In 2016, Bend will also see the opening of its first dedicated four-year university campus, which will ultimately bring up to 5,000 students into the mix. While some of these students will live on campus, there will also be a need for affordable student housing off campus.
Based on these trends, the future housing mix in Bend will look different than it has in the past. There is a growing need to provide a wider range of housing sizes and prices to accommodate the shifting demographics. Evidence suggests that a substantial portion of Bend’s residents will live in attached housing, such as townhouses, cottage housing, duplexes, garden apartments, or urban apartments. At the same time, Bend also has a continuing demand for single-unit detached dwellings, primarily on small or moderately sized lots (5,000 to 7,000 square feet). A growing share of households will be renters, either by choice (e.g., Baby Boomers who prefer to rent smaller units) or by economic necessity. Demand for these types of homes will be particularly high in areas close to Bend’s commercial and recreational amenities. In planning for future housing, Bend must pay close attention to the following housing issues:
■ Widening demand for a range of housing types by retirees. Older households tend to move less frequently than younger households, and a large majority would like to age in place. Being near family, friends, and social organizations in walkable neighborhoods also becomes increasingly important with age.
■ Increasing demand for family housing. Millennials and Hispanic households are poised to account for the largest percentages of growth in Bend over the next 20 years. Millennial will be entering the phase of life when they form families and have children. In addition, Hispanic households have larger than average household size because they often live in multi-generational households and have a larger average number of children. Growth in households with families will drive need for housing that is both affordable and has sufficient space.
■ Increasing demand for affordable housing. A substantial proportion of Bend’s households cannot afford housing in Bend. Many workers in Bend live in nearby communities because affordable housing is in short supply in Bend, and the demand for small-lot housing with nearby amenities is increasing. For two of the fastest growing demographics in Bend, the Millennials and Hispanic and Latino population, affordability is more likely to be a barrier to homeownership or higher-cost rental housing.
■ Location and design of housing. The location of housing is becoming increasingly important, with increased demand for housing in walkable neighborhoods near retail and other amenities. Integrated multi-unit and compact single-unit homes located in neighborhoods can provide opportunities for a wider range of housing and transportation options.
Vision for Neighborhood Livability in Bend While the range of housing types and prices in Bend will expand, Bend will continue to emphasize livability in all neighborhoods, old and new. What does a livable neighborhood look like? |
■ Safe and convenient for travel by foot, car and bike ■ Natural features, parks, open space ■ Small-scale shops and places to eat and drink in the neighborhood or nearby ■ Quality housing that provides diverse housing types and flexibility that meets market demand ■ Comfortable integration and transitions between housing types and commercial uses |