All of these forecasts predict continued higher than average growth rates for Deschutes County until early into the 21st century, followed by slower growth rates. The most recent forecasts by OEA (2004) and the coordinated forecast (2004) show the recent trend of steady growth continuing through 2010 and then slowing through 2025. The Bend UGB population forecast for the year 2025 is 109,389. Figure 4-6 shows this forecast in five-year increments.

The county and three cities have worked together to coordinate population forecasts for all three urban areas and the non-urban portion of the county. The Bend population forecast is based on a combination of past rates of population growth continuing in the near term and the use of annual growth rates developed by OEA through the long term. Although additional development will occur in rural subdivisions and rural service centers, the majority of the new residents will settle in the three urban areas. The forecast distribution of the population in the year 2025 is shown in Figure 4-7.

As in the past, it is expected that most of the population increase will come from persons moving into the area. The OEA forecast for Deschutes County from 2000 to 2040 shows that most of the future growth in the county’s population will be net migration. During the forecast period, net migration accounts for 88 percent to 100 percent of the county’s growth in population. By 2025, the percent of the county’s growth in population due to net migration will be 94 percent.